DEMAND AND SUPPLY - TRENDS IN GLOBAL AGRICULTURE

This paper considers the sustainability of the global agricultural system at acceptable levels of economic and environmental costs. A future scenario of demand for food and fibre is outlined as the challenge confronting the global agricultural system over the next 40 years. The capacity of the system to increase supply in response to this scenario in an economically and environmentally sustainable manner in less developed countries is considered. Five categories of agricultural resources are investigated. Knowledge, which can be more readily developed than other resources, can be substituted for natural resources. Of each resource, it is therefore asked whether knowledge has the capacity to substitute for agricultural resources to increase supply in a sustainable manner. The demand scenario will only be met in a sustainable way with improved knowledge which may compensate for insufficient supplies of natural resources. As knowledge can only grow through investment in its development, a strategy to control and manage the allocation of investments to various sectors is required if a sustainable global agricultural system is to be developed.