ALTERNATIVE MODEL FORMULATIONS FOR A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION OF LANDSCAPE CHANGE

被引:36
作者
FLAMM, RO
TURNER, MG
机构
[1] Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, 37831-6038, Tennessee
关键词
D O I
10.1007/BF00135077
中图分类号
Q14 [生态学(生物生态学)];
学科分类号
071012 ; 0713 ;
摘要
Two stochastic model formulations, one using pixel-based transitions and the other patch-based, were compared by running simulations where the amount of information on which transitions were based was increased. Both model types adequately represented changes in the proportion of the landscape occupied by different land cover types. However, the pixel-based model underestimated contagion and overestimated the amount of edge. The patch-based model overestimated contagion and underestimated edge. Overall, the estimates more closely approximated the expected and the variances decreased as more information was added to the models. As expected, the model that most closely simulated the spatial pattern of the landscape was a 5-data-layer patch-based model that also included ownership boundaries as an additional layer. The simulation methods described provide a means to integrate socioeconomic and ecological information into a spatially-explicit transition model of landscape change and to simulate change at a scale similar to that occurring in a landscape.
引用
收藏
页码:37 / 46
页数:10
相关论文
共 25 条
[1]  
Baker W.L., A review of models of landscape change, Landscape Ecol., 2, 2, pp. 111-133, (1989)
[2]  
Berry J.K., Sailor J.K., Use of a geographic information system for storm runoff prediction from small urban watersheds, Environ. Manag., 11, pp. 21-27, (1987)
[3]  
Boumans R.M.J., Sklar F.H., A polygon-based spatial model for simulating landscape change, Landscape Ecol., 4, pp. 83-97, (1990)
[4]  
Burnham B.O., Markov intertemporal land use simulation model, S.J. Agric. Econ., 5, pp. 253-258, (1973)
[5]  
Costanza R., Sklar F.H., Day J.W., Modeling spatial and temporal succession in the Atchafalaya/Terrebonne marsh estuarine complex in south Louisiana, Estuarine Variability, pp. 387-404, (1986)
[6]  
Dale V.H., Southworth F., O'Neill R.V., Rosen A., Frohn R., Simulating spatial patterns of land-use in Rondonia, Brazil, Some Mathematical Questions in Biology, pp. 29-56, (1993)
[7]  
De Roo A.P.J., Hazelhoff L., Burrough P.A., Soil erosion modelling using ‘ANSWERS’ and geographic information systems, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 14, pp. 517-532, (1989)
[8]  
Gardner R.H., Dale V.H., O'Neill R.V., Warren W.G., Error propagation and uncertainty in process modeling, Process Modeling of Forest Growth Responses to Environmental Stress, pp. 208-219, (1990)
[9]  
Hall F.G., Strebel D.E., Sellers P.J., Linking knowledge among spatial and temporal scales: vegetation, atmosphere, climate and remote sensing, Landscape Ecol., 2, 1, pp. 3-22, (1988)
[10]  
Hett J., Land use changes in east Tennessee and a simulation model which describes these changes for 3 counties, (1971)