PATTERN, PROCESS AND PREDICTION IN AQUATIC ECOLOGY - A LIMNOLOGICAL VIEW OF SOME GENERAL ECOLOGICAL PROBLEMS

1. New scientific concepts such as models of chaos, complex dynamics and non-linear interactions have the potential to contribute to an improved understanding of ecological patterns and processes. This paper discusses some of the known dynamics of phytoplankton, pelagic food chains and nutrient cycles in the light of some of these new concepts. The paper brings these new conceptual models together with data from a wide range of sources in an attempt to produce a synthesis of system behaviour which allows us to understand why some things are inherently more predictable than others. In particular it looks at the limnological management tools of empirical biomass models and biomanipulation and at the need for prediction of species composition. 2. The structures observed in ecosystems (nutrient pools, sizes, species, temporal/spatial patterns) show properties at a spectrum of scales, as do the processes (fluxes, grazing, competition). Both respond to a spectrum of external perturbations that may be climatologically or anthropogenically induced. Empirical biomass models work because of the annual averaging of pattern and process and because of some inherent properties of the functioning of pelagic ecosystems. Many aspects of ecosystem pattern and process vary in a regular way with trophic state. Examination of empirical data sets can lead to an improved understanding of system behaviour if questions are asked about why things happen the way they do. 3. Feedbacks between pattern, process and periodicity are seen to be an inherent property of the system. Understanding the fundamental dynamics of non-linear interactions in ecosystems may make it possible to exploit the external spectrum of environmental perturbations and to control system function. For example, by imposing external physical perturbations on pelagic systems it may be possible to manipulate the species composition of the phytoplankton community. Because of the complexity of possible interactions both 'horizontally' between species and 'vertically' within the food chain, any prediction of species composition will necessarily be probabilistic.