NEW PATTERNS OF LABOR MOBILITY - A PANEL ANALYSIS OF JOB CHANGES AND UNEMPLOYMENT

This paper tests for state dependence in histories of unemployment and job mobility from the first six waves of the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). Transitions between states of employment and unemployment are modelled as outcomes of binomial probit processes which are first and higher order Markov. The use of simulation estimation allows quite general intertemporal covariance structures in order to capture individual heterogeneity. It is investigated how differences in human capital and other personal characteristics, and macro or industry determinants such as regional unemployment, growth and immigration pressure affect labour mobility.