ACQUISITION OF EXPERT JUDGMENT - EXAMPLES FROM RISK ASSESSMENT

Risk assessment of technological hazards usually requires expert judgment for the quantification of uncertain parameters. One method of incorporating these judgments into the analysis is to encode them as probabilities or probability distributions. This paper discusses a formal procedure for developing these probability distributions. The steps in the procedure include selection of experts, selection and definition of issues, preparation for probability elicitation, probability elicitation methods, postelicitation processing of judgments, and documentation. The procedure is illustrated with examples from technological risk assessment, including reactor safety and nuclear-waste disposal studies.