THEORETICAL BASIS AND EMPIRICAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE BOVINE BRUCELLOSIS MARKET SLAUGHTER TESTING PROGRAM IN THE UNITED-STATES

With reductions in federal funding, the Market Slaughter Testing (MST) surveillance system might once again become the primary bovine brucellosis surveillance system for the beef-cow population in the USA. Understanding the weakness and/or strengths of the MST surveillance system will be crucial in determining the most effective program in a limited funding control/eradication program. An estimation of a hypergeometric distribution used in previous studies to describe the effectiveness of the MST system is employed and parameters of this distribution are estimated from secondary data. Results analyzed by herd size and within-herd infection level yield a distinct herd size bias in the MST surveillance system. For example, the probability of detection in a 9 cow herd is 24% compared to 85.4% for a 645 cow herd after 1 yr of infection. This herd size bias implies that secondary testing may be efficiently used by concentrating testing in the smaller herds when funds for secondary testing are limited. MST detection probabilities can vary 30% between the build-up and liquidation phases of the cattle cycle, i.e., secular upswings and downswings in cattle inventory numbers. First Point of Concentration testing (FPC) of purchased replacements can partially offset the effects of the cattle cycle. A 95% herd vaccination level can reduce the probability of detection as much as 40% when compared to a similar herd that is not vaccinated.