The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques

被引：449

作者：

Bishop, Peter ^{[1
]}

Hines, Andy ^{[2
]}

Collins, Terry ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Houston, Houston, TX 77004 USA

[2] Social Technol, Consulting, Washington, DC USA

来源：

FORESIGHT | 2007年 / 9卷 / 01期

关键词：

Futures markets; Research methods; Management techniques;

D O I：

10.1108/14636680710727516

中图分类号：

TU98 [区域规划、城乡规划];

学科分类号：

0814 ; 082803 ; 0833 ;

摘要：

Purpose - The paper aims to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses. Design/methodology/approach - The study was carried out through an electronic search using internet search engines and online databases and indexes. Findings - The paper finds eight categories of techniques that include a total of 23 variations used to develop scenarios. There are descriptions and evaluations for each. Practical implications - Futurists can use this list to broaden their repertoire of scenario techniques. Originality/value - Scenario development is the stock-in-trade of futures studies, but no catalog of the techniques used has yet been published. This list is the start at developing a consensus list of techniques that can be refined as the field matures.

引用

页码：5 / +

页数：30