ORDER AND DIVERSITY IN THE MODES OF CIRCUM-PACIFIC EARTHQUAKE RECURRENCE

Recurrence characteristics of great circum-Pacific earthquakes and determinations of spatial distribution of seismic moment release are surveyed in order to delineate their general features and relate earthquake slip distribution to models of recurrent rupture. As noted by others, the pattern of moment release is typically very irregular, with strong concentrations in a few isolated regions of a much larger aftershock zone. Despite this complexity, rupture nucleation is notably systematic, with mainshock epicenter showing a strong tendency to locate in or immediately adjacent to identified regions of high moment release. This generalization suggests that earthquake recurrence is more likely to be controlled by maximum rather than average fault slip. Well-documented case histories from 12 plate boundary regions demonstrate that seismic strain release tends to be temporally well-ordered, while source dimensions, slip, and cumulative moment release vary considerably from cycle to cycle. -from Author