PREDICTING DRINKING OUTCOME - DEMOGRAPHY, CHRONICITY, COPING, AND AFTERCARE

The contribution of demographics (age, marital status), chronicity (previous alcohol hospitalizations, years of problem drinking), coping (temptation, cognitive coping), and early aftercare attendance, in predicting drinking outcomes was examined using hierarchical regression and discriminant analyses. Six-month followup data were available for 37 of 39 male alcoholics. Previous hospitalizations significantly predicted all drinking outcomes. Abstinence for the six-month followup was predicted by years of problem drinking and cognitive coping. Early aftercare attendance added significantly to the prediction of consumption, drinking days, and abstinence. Demographics were not significant predictors of outcome. The results support the continued utility of chronicity variables as predictors of outcome, underscore the importance of coping, and suggest that early aftercare attendance be monitored and investigated further.