MODELING THE FATE AND TRANSPORT OF AL-AHMADI OIL-SPILL

Over the period January-May 1991 Iraqi forces, occupying the state of Kuwait, caused a massive amount of oil to be released in the waters of the Arabian Gulf. The volume of oil released may have been as large as 6 x 10(6) bbls. Most of the oil was released at or near Mina Al-Ahmadi in southern Kuwait. Two mathematical models, GULFSLIK II and OILPOL, were used to simulate the fate and transport of oil spilled at AI-Ahmadi. The oil spill trajectory model GULFSLIK II was used in an operational real time mode to predict the surface trajectory of oil spills at various locations. The real time trajectory analysis was used to support tactical spill response. Short term precictions were made using 7-d wind forecasts. Long term predictions were made using monthly wind averages. Comparisons between predicted trajectories and actual sightings show that GULFSLIK II is reasonably accurate. The oil spill fate and transport model, OILPOL, was applied to compute surface and subsurface distribution of oil, and analyze the fate of the spilled oil. An oil spill size of 4 x 10(6) bbls was assumed. OILPOLL results were used to support damage assessment studies and environmental impact statements. The distribution of oil on the surface and subsurface layers were obtained daily for a period of 80 d. Oil concentration at strategic locations in the Gulf were also computed. Surface oil distribution as predicted by OILPOL was compared with sighting data. The results show excellent agreement.