METEOROLOGICALLY ADJUSTED OZONE TRENDS IN URBAN AREAS - A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH

A method has been developed that explicitly accounts for the effect of meteorological fluctuations on the annual distribution of ground-level ozone in urban areas. The model includes a trend component that adjusts the annual rate of change in ozone for concurrent impacts of meteorological conditions, including surface temperature and wind speed. The model was applied using available data from 43 urban areas throughout the U.S.A. where ozone levels frequently exceed the National Ambient Air Quality Standard. The results suggest that meteorologically adjusted upper percentiles of the distribution of daily maximum I-h ozone are decreasing in most urban areas over the period from 1981 to 1991. The median rate of change was -1.1% per year indicating that ozone levels have decreased approximately 11% over this time period. Trends estimated by ignoring the meteorological component appear to underestimate the rate of improvement in ozone primarily because of the uneven year-to-year distribution of meteorological conditions favorable to ozone.