UNCERTAINTY IN PREDICTING WEATHERING RATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL-STRESS FACTORS WITH THE PROFILE MODEL

The PROFILE model is a steady state soil chemistry model which is used to calculate soil weathering rate. The model has also been used to calculate critical loads of acidity and N to forest soils, using the ratio of Ca+Mg+K to total inorganic aluminium in the soil solution as criterion, and to surface waters, using the ANC leached from the soil column as criterion. An uncertainty analysis of the PROFILE model was performed by Monte Carlo analysis, varying input parameter errors individually and simultaneously in ranges of +/-10-100%, depending on parameter. The uncretainty in calculation of weathering rate, ANC leaching and ratio of Ca+Mg+K to inorganic Al in the soil solution was studied for three Nordic sites. Furthermore, the effect of uncertainty in estimates of critical load for forest soils was assessed. The analysis shows that the weathering rate can be calculated with high precision, provided that the errors of input parameter are within the range that has been reported in the literature. The model tend to be less sensitive to errors in input parameters for the range of conditions where forest damage is most likely to occur. Critical loads of acid deposition for one site calculated on the basis of the model varies within a largest range of +/-40%. A study of one geographical grid included in the Swedish critical loads assessment shows that with the number of calculation points in the grid, the distribution of critical loads will stay stable independently of stochastic errors.