DIAGNOSING THE IMBALANCE OF YANAMAREY GLACIER IN THE CORDILLERA BLANCA OF PERU

A detailed glaciological observation program was conducted on the Yanamarey Glacier in the Cordillera Blanca of Peru, including the monitoring of net balance and ice flow velocity during 1977-1988 and mappings of the surface topography in 1973, 1982, and 1988. These observations are here evaluated to combine net balance, surface lowering, and ice flow into a consistent picture of the mode of operation of a tropical glacier on the scale of a decade. The glacier extends between 5100 and 4500 m with a total area of 9 x 10(5) m(2) and length of about 1.3 km. Maximum flow velocity is 17.4 m yr(-1) and maximum volume flux 336 x 10(3) m(3) yr(-1). In the ablation area, net balance is about -6 m yr(-1) and surface lowering 3 m yr(-1). About half of the mean annual water discharge from the glacier of 80 L s(-1) is not renewed by precipitation but supplied by the ice thinning. The rate of surface lowering of 1.5 m yr(-1) liquid water equivalent translates to a glacier average departure heat supply for melting of 16 W m(-2). Sensitivity analyses indicate that this could be produced by a cloudiness increase m of less than one tenth, an air temperature decrease of 2 degrees C, an increment in specific humidity of less than 1 g kg(-1) or some combination of heat budget processes. Such changes in the atmospheric environment would be required to stabilize the glacier at its recent volume. As another indication of the recent imbalance, the maximum volume flux is found some 100 m below the equilibrium line altitude. Under continuation of the recent climatic conditions, the glacier may survive for more than half a century.