FORESIGHT IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

被引:294
作者
MARTIN, BR
机构
[1] Science Policy Research Uni (SPRU), University of Sussex, Falmer
基金
英国经济与社会研究理事会;
关键词
D O I
10.1080/09537329508524202
中图分类号
C93 [管理学];
学科分类号
12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;
摘要
Emerging generic technologies seem set to make a revolutionary impact on the economy and society. However, success in developing arch technologies depends upon advances in science. Confronted with increasing global economic competition, policy-makers and scientists are grappling with the problem of how, to select the most promising research areas and emerging technologies on which to target resources and, hence, derive the greatest benefits. This paper analyzes the experiences of Japan, the US, the Netherlands, Germany, Australia, New Zealand and the UK in using 'foresight' to help in selecting and exploiting research that is likely to yield longer-term economic and social benefits. It puts forward a model of the foresight process for identifying research areas and technologies of strategic importance, and also analyzes why some foresight exercises have proved more successful than others. It concludes by drawing an analogy between models of innovation and foresight.
引用
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页码:139 / 168
页数:30
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