I KNEW IT WOULD HAPPEN - REMEMBERED PROBABILITIES OF ONCE-FUTURE THINGS

被引：448

作者：

FISCHHOFF, B ^{[1
]}

BEYTH, R ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] HEBREW UNIV JERUSALEM,JERUSALEM,ISRAEL

来源：

ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND HUMAN PERFORMANCE | 1975年 / 13卷 / 01期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1016/0030-5073(75)90002-1

中图分类号：

C93 [管理学];

学科分类号：

12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;

摘要：

引用

页码：1 / 16

页数：16

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[1]

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[2]

CARR EH, 1961, WHAT HISTORY

[3]

FISCHHOFF B, 1974, THESIS HEBREW U JERU

[4]

GELLER ES, 1968, ORGAN BEHAV HUM PERF, V3, P190

[5]

SLOVIC P, 1972, OREGON RESEARCH I RE, V12

[6] JUDGMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY - HEURISTICS AND BIASES [J].

TVERSKY, A ;

KAHNEMAN, D .

[7] AVAILABILITY - HEURISTIC FOR JUDGING FREQUENCY AND PROBABILITY [J].

TVERSKY, A ;

KAHNEMAN, D .

[8]

Wohlstetter R, 1962, PEARL HARBOR WARNING