ON UNCERTAIN RENEWABLE RESOURCE STOCKS - OPTIMAL HARVEST POLICIES AND THE VALUE OF STOCK SURVEYS

Annual harvest quotas are commonly employed in the management of renewable resource stocks, commercial fisheries being a prime example. Such resource stocks often undergo quite significant natural fluctuations, to which quotas must be adapted. A further complication arises from the fact that estimates of stock abundance are often highly uncertain. In this paper a Bayesian approach is used to model optimal quota decisions for an uncertain, fluctuating, renewable resource stock.