ESTIMATING END-USE DEMAND - A BAYESIAN-APPROACH

Eliminating negative end-use or appliance-consumption estimates and incorporating direct-metering information into the process of generating these estimates-these are two important aspects of conditional demand analysis that will be the focus of this article. In both cases a Bayesian approach seems a natural way of proceeding. What needs to be investigated is whether it is also a viable and effective approach. In addition, such a framework naturally lends itself to prediction. Our application involves the estimation of electrical-appliance consumptions for a sample of Australian households. This application is designed to illustrate the viability of a full Bayesian analysis of the problem.