FRAMEWORK FOR THE ANALYSIS OF RISKS IN FOREST MANAGEMENT AND SILVICULTURAL INVESTMENTS

Determination of optimal forest-management regimes has been traditionally based on the assumption that the outcome of the management activity is certain. This was the case despite the almost universal recognition that forest-management outcomes are, in fact, uncertain. In this paper, a comprehensive conceptual framework for incorporating risk in forest-management and silviculture investment is developed. The framework distinguishes between decision problems which are structured and those which are unstructured. For the former, the framework focuses upon achieving a match between the decision-problem representation and the degree of knowledge of risk preferences, risk-preference structures and the nature of the risks. For unstructured decisions a new formulation based upon the concept of resilience is developed. The two framework are reconciled through a calculus of risks, benefits and resilience. © 1990.