MEASLES INCIDENCE, VACCINE EFFICACY, AND MORTALITY IN 2 URBAN AFRICAN AREAS WITH HIGH VACCINATION COVERAGE

Measles incidence, vaccine efficacy, and mortality were examined prospectively in two districts in Bissau where vaccine coverage for children aged 12–23 months was 81% (Bandim 1) and 61% (Bandim 2). There was little difference in cumulative measles incidence before 9 months of age (6.1% and 7.6%, respectively). Between 9 months and 2 years of age, however, 6.1% contracted measles in Bandim 1 and 13.7% in Bandim 2. Even adjusting for vaccination status, incidence was significantly higher in Bandim 2 (relative risk 1.6, P =.04). Even though 95% ofthe children had measles antibodies after vaccination, vaccine efficacy was not more than 68% (95% confidence interval [CI] 39%–84%) and was unrelated to age at vaccination. Unvaccinated children had a mortality hazard ratio of 3.0 compared with vaccinated children (P =.002), indicating a protective efficacy against death of66% (CI 32%–83%) ofmeasles vaccination. These data suggest that it will be necessary to vaccinate before age 9 months to control measles in hyperendemic urban African areas. © 1990, by The University of Chicago.