A Probability Method for Very Short-Term Steady State Analysis of a Distribution System with Wind Farms

In this paper, a probabilistic method is proposed to analyze the very short-term steady-state performance of an unbalanced distribution electrical system characterized by the presence of wind farms. This method, which can take into account the uncertainties of loads and wind productions, is based on a Monte Carlo simulation procedure applied to the non-linear three-phase load flow equations, including wind farm models. Bayesian time series models are used to predict the next hour's wind speed probability density functions, making possible a predictive evaluation of the very short-term system steady-state behavior. Numerical applications are presented and discussed with reference to the three-phase unbalanced IEEE 34-bus test distribution system in the presence of wind farms connected at different busbars.