Illustrates assessment of ecotoxicological effects of pesticides at the farm level by long-term environmental monitoring coupled with time-series modelling using 20 yr of data on the density of sawflies (Symphyta: Hymenoptera) in cereals on a 62-km2 area of West Sussex. Summer use of aphicides in the area first became important in 1989, when 7 km2 were treated with dimethoate. Based on pre-1989 data, annual sawfly densities were related, with a 1-yr lag, to the proportion of cereal fields which were undersown and to summer rainfall and temperature, with a strong autoregressive component. In 1989, sawfly density in the area treated with dimethoate was <10% of that predicted by the model. -Author