THE COGNITIVE STRUCTURE OF DECISION-MAKING AND THE COURSE OF ARAB-ISRAELI RELATIONS, 1970-1978

This study begins with an empirical examination of the structural components of Arab and Israeli decision makers' beliefs about foreign affairs and their effect: on regional relations. The results corroborate those of previous studies, which show a systematic positive relationship between the complexity of leaders' cognitions and the cooperativeness of their foreign policy behaviors. The findings also mark the patterns of decision making of each of the actors as either strategic or ad hoc in nature. Despite common assertions by both Arab and Israeli leaders of the planned and aggressive intentions of opponent states, the results show little evidence of strategically aggressive policy making on either side. Instead, the analyses highlight the tendencies of both Arab and Israeli decision makers to apply ad hoc decision making and to moderate behavior in decision environments characterized by (1) uncertainty and (2) where the opponent has already demonstrated its own cooperativeness.