INFLUENCE OF WEATHER OIL THE SYNCHRONY OF GYPSY-MOTH (LEPIDOPTERA, LYMANTRIIDAE) OUTBREAKS IN NEW-ENGLAND

Outbreaks of the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), were partially synchronous across the New England states (Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont) from 1938 to 1992. To explain this synchrony, we investigated the Moran effect, a hypothesis that local population oscillations, which result from similar density-dependent mechanisms operating at time lags, may be synchronized over wide areas by exposure to common weather patterns. We also investigated the thee of climatic release, which postulates that outbreaks are triggered by climatic factors favorable for population growth. Tune series analysis revealed defoliation series in 2 states as Ist-order autoregressive processes and the other 2 as periodic 2nd-order autoregressive processes. Defoliation residuals series computed using the autoregressive models for each state were cross correlated with series of weather variables recorded in the respective states. The weather variables significantly correlated with defoliation residuals in all 4 states were minimum temperature and precipitation in mid-December in the same gypsy moth generation and minimum temperature in mid- to late July of the previous generation. These weather variables also were correlated strongly among the 4 states. The analyses support the predictions of the Moran effect and suggest that common weather may synchronize local populations so as to produce pest outbreaks over wide areas. We did not find convincing evidence to support the theory of climatic release.