NEW CONTROL CONCEPTS FOR UNCERTAIN WATER-RESOURCES SYSTEMS .1. THEORY

A major complicating factor in water resources systems management is handling unknown inputs. Stochastic optimization provides a sound mathematical framework but requires that enough data exist to develop statistical input representations. In cases where data records are insufficient (e.g., extreme events) or atypical of future input realizations, stochastic methods are inadequate. This article presents a control approach where input variables are only expected to belong in certain sets. The objective is to determine sets of admissible control actions guaranteeing that the system will remain within desirable bounds. The solution is based on dynamic programming and derived for the case where all sets are convex polyhedra. A companion paper (Yao and Georgakakos, this issue) addresses specific applications and problems in relation to reservoir system management.