TOWARDS A MODEL OF ACIDIFICATION EFFECTS ON WATERFOWL IN EASTERN CANADA

Data from 212 lakes in central Ontario were used to examine the relationship between presence of breeding waterfowl and loons and the following lake characteristics: pH, presence of fish, lake area, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and total phosphorus (TP) concentration. In univariate analyses, the two fish-eating species preferred large, high pH lakes with fish. while insectivorous species showed little consistent pattern of lake association. Logistic regression analyses confirmed that large lake size and presence of fish were important determinants of presence of piscivores, though the residual effect of pH differed between the two species. Broods of three of the four insectivorous species avoided lakes with fish, and independently showed a positive response to pH. By calculating the probability that fish will be present on a lake of given area and pH. it is possible to estimate the net effect of pH change on these waterfowl. Relationships such as those presented here can, with some assumptions, be linked to models of lake acidification to estimate response of waterfowl to predicted changes in acidic deposition.