THE DEATH KNELLS OF MATURE TECHNOLOGIES

The oscillatory behavior in the mature phase of some technologies' diffusion-related S curves are investigated, specifically with regard to the influences that other technologies can have on the oscillations. The notion of mortality indicators is raised, that is, whether such behavior is a signal that the mature technology is under attack from an emerging technology. The case of structural panels in the wood products industry is considered as an example, and an updated forecast of the substitution of oriented strand board for plywood is made. It is concluded that factors such as macroeconomic business cycles are primarily responsible for the oscillations in plywood's S-curve, although it is argued that an emerging technology can also contribute to perturbations in a mature technology's S-curve. Two possible alternative explanations for the oscillatory behavior are also discussed, a previously proposed chaos formulation, and a mathematical model based on modified Lotka-Volterra equations. This model shows that the oscillatory behavior in mature technologies' S-curves can also result from symbiotic interaction between two technologies under certain circumstances.