DO CARDIOVASCULAR-DISEASE RISK-FACTORS PREDICT ALL-CAUSE MORTALITY

Background. The purpose of this study is to describe associations between a number of standard cardiovascular risk factors and all-cause mortality. Method. Mortality data were collected for a randomly selected cohort of 1029 New Zealand men aged 35-64 years, followed up over a 9-year period. A proportional hazards regression model was used to estimate the relative risks (RR) for all-cause mortality associated with a number of cardiovascular risk factors. Results. In all, 96 deaths occurred over the 9-year period, of which 50% were due to cardiovascular causes. All-cause mortality was positively associated with cigarette smoking (age-adjusted RR = 2.01, 95% CI : 1.15-3.53, current versus never), systolic blood pressure (age-adjusted RR = 2.18, 95% CI : 1.23-4.44, upper versus lower tertile), and body mass index (age-adjusted RR = 1.59, 95% CI : 0.94-2.66, upper versus lower tertile) and inversely associated with high density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol (age-adjusted RR = 0.45, 95% CI : 0.25-0.80, upper versus lower tertile). All-cause mortality was only weakly associated with serum total cholesterol (age-adjusted RR = 1.19, 95% CI :0.70-1.99, upper versus lower tertile), and there was no evidence of a U-shaped relationship for this risk factor, There was an inverse association between all-cause mortality and socioeconomic status (age-adjusted RR = 1.70, 95% CI : 1.03-2.80, lower versus upper). Light alcohol consumption was associated with reduced all-cause mortality (age-adjusted RR = 0.63, 95% CI : 0.37-1.05, light versus teetotal), but this benefit did not persist for alcohol consumption above about three standard drinks per day. Conclusions. The findings of this study indicate that the standard cardiovascular risk factors are likely to have a beneficial impact on all-cause mortality as well as cardiovascular disease in middle-aged and older men.