THE UNCERTAIN CONNECTION - FREE-TRADE AND RURAL MEXICAN MIGRATION TO THE UNITED-STATES

Will a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) decrease Mexican migration to the US, as the US and Mexican governments assert, or increase migration beyond the movement that would otherwise occur, as NAFTA critics allege? This article argues that it is easy to overestimate the additional emigration from rural Mexico owing to NAFTA-related economic restructuring in Mexico. NAFTA-related economic displacement in Mexico may yield an initial wave of migration to test the US labor market, but this migration should soon diminish if the jobs that these migrants seek shift to Mexico. -from Authors