EDUCATIONAL-ATTAINMENT, INDUSTRIAL-STRUCTURE, AND MALE EARNINGS THROUGH THE 1980S

Between 1979 and 1989, men's average earnings declined and the percentage of men with low earnings increased. Much of the decline in mean earnings and the increased incidence of low earnings can be accounted for by changes in the returns to education, experience, and industry of employment-changes that we attribute to demand-side factors, such as changes in technology. Shifts in industrial employment patterns had a relatively small effect on mean earnings and low earnings rates. However, their effects were larger among blacks than among whites and Hispanics. We also find that educational upgrading over the decade kept mean earnings from falling even further and helped to hold down the growth of low earnings, especially among blacks.