ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF ACTIVITY TIME IN PERT

被引：72

作者：

GOLENKOGINZBURG, D

机构：

[1] Ben-Gurion Univ of the Negev, Beer Sheva, Isr, Ben-Gurion Univ of the Negev, Beer Sheva, Isr

来源：

JOURNAL OF THE OPERATIONAL RESEARCH SOCIETY | 1988年 / 39卷 / 08期

关键词：

DATA PROCESSING - PERT - OPTIMIZATION - STATISTICAL METHODS;

D O I：

10.1057/jors.1988.132

中图分类号：

C93 [管理学];

学科分类号：

12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;

摘要：

In PERT analysis the activity-time distribution is assumed to be a beta distribution, and the mean and variance of the activity time are estimated on the basis of the 'pessimistic', 'most likely' and 'optimistic' completion times, which are subjectively determined by an analyst. In this paper, on the basis of the study of the PERT assumptions, we present an improvement of these estimates. It is also shown that, by means of additional reasonable assumptions, the activity-time distribution in PERT analysis may be essentially simplified.

引用

页码：767 / 771

页数：5

共 24 条

[1] COMPUTER METHODS FOR SAMPLING FROM GAMMA, BETA, POISSON AND BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTIONS [J].