An analysis of the determinants of sovereign ratings

In recent years, the demand for sovereign ratings has increased mainly due to the inevitable globalisation of markets. This study analyses the quantitative determinants of sovereign ratings provided by the two main agencies, namely, Standard and Poors and Moody. The analysis also provides a forecast of the ratings to be assigned to the countries based on the model used as well as providing ratings to be assigned to a set of weaker economies which are not actually rated by the rating agencies. The main finding of the paper is that current economic and financial indicators alone do not determine ratings. In addition, the relevance of economic variables is not the same across the different rating categories. Economic variables do not carry the same importance for the sample of high rated countries with a long financial stability history as compared to the low rated sample of countries that are still undergoing structural changes. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.