SPACE-TIME PRECIPITATION REFLECTING CLIMATE-CHANGE

被引：25

作者：

MATYASOVSZKY, I

BOGARDI, I

BARDOSSY, A

DUCKSTEIN, L

机构：

[1] Department of Civil Engineering, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE

[2] Institut für Hydrologie und Wasserwirtschaft, University of Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe, D-7500

[3] Systems and Industrial Engineering Department, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ

来源：

HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES | 1993年 / 38卷 / 06期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

D O I：

10.1080/02626669309492704

中图分类号：

TV21 [水资源调查与水利规划];

学科分类号：

081501 ;

摘要：

A methodology has been developed and applied to an eastern Nebraska, USA, case study to estimate the space-time distribution of daily precipitation under climate change. The approach is based on the analysis both of the type and of the Markov properties of atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs), and a stochastic linkage between daily (here 500 hPa) CP types and daily precipitation events. Historical data and General Circulation Model (GCM) output of daily CPs corresponding to 1 X CO2 and 2 x CO2 are considered. Time series of both local and regional precipitation corresponding to each of those cases were simulated and their statistical properties were compared. Under the dry continental climate of eastern Nebraska, a highly variable spatial response to climate change was obtained. Most of the local and the regional average precipitation values reflect, under 2 x C0(2), a somewhat wetter and a more variable precipitation regime in eastern Nebraska. The sensitivity of the results to the GCM utilized should be considered.

引用

页码：539 / 558

页数：20

共 26 条

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