CRIME AND UNEMPLOYMENT AMONG YOUTHS IN THE UNITED-STATES, 1958-1990 - A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS

Unemployment and arrest time series data for persons aged 16 to 19 years in the United States from 1958 to 1990 show crime among youth to be associated with both the current level of youth unemployment and the annual change in the rate of youth unemployment. For violent offenses (homicide, rape and aggravated assault), as well as for property offenses (robbery, burglary and larceny), higher rates of youth unemployment are negatively associated with annual changes in the arrest rates of youth. Conversely, the lagged effect of youth unemployment is limited to property offenses, where annual changes in youth unemployment are positively related to annual changes in the arrest rates of youth for robbery, burglary and larceny, but negatively related to changes in the auto theft arrest rate.