OUTCOME PREDICTION FOR INDIVIDUAL INTENSIVE-CARE PATIENTS - USEFUL, MISUSED, OR ABUSED

被引:122
作者
LEMESHOW, S
KLAR, J
TERES, D
机构
[1] BAYSTATE MED CTR,DIV CRIT CARE,SPRINGFIELD,MA 01107
[2] TUFTS UNIV,SCH MED,BOSTON,MA 02111
关键词
ICU MODELS; MODEL CALIBRATION; MORTALITY PREDICTION; PROBABILITY MODELS; SEVERITY OF ILLNESS;
D O I
10.1007/BF01704747
中图分类号
R4 [临床医学];
学科分类号
1002 ; 100602 ;
摘要
Probabilities of hospital mortality provide meaningful information in many contexts, such as in discussions of patient prognosis by intensive care physicians, in patient stratification for analysis of clinical trial data by researchers, and in hospital reimbursement analysis by insurers. Use of probabilities as binary predictors based on a cut point can be misleading for making treatment decisions for individual patients, however, even when model performance is good overall. Alternative models for estimating severity of illness in intensive care unit (ICU) patients, while demonstrating good agreement for describing patients in the aggregate, are shown to differ considerably for individual patients. This suggests that identifying patients unlikely to benefit from ICU care by using models must be approached with considerable caution.
引用
收藏
页码:770 / 776
页数:7
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