PREDICTION IN MACROSOCIOLOGY - THE CASE OF THE SOVIET COLLAPSE

Macrohistorical predictions are possible, provided both a theory and empirical information are available. This article discusses sociological prediction, using geopolitical theory's successful prediction of the breakup of the Soviet Union as an example. Other predictions and explanations of the Soviet breakup generally lack theoretical validity. The precision of macropolitical predictions is limited to a range of decades, but state breakdown and revolution occur in a much narrower time period. The transfer of power happens in a mass mobilization lasting a few days, thus creating the illusion that spontaneous popular will causes macropolitical change and masking the structural shifts that make the change possible.