MODELING WEED DISTRIBUTION FOR IMPROVED POSTEMERGENCE CONTROL DECISIONS

Broadleaf weeds apparently have patchy distributions within a field while POST control decisions are made assuming a regular spatial distribution. As a result, yield loss from weed competition may be overestimated, possibly leading to mistakes in choosing the optimal control treatment. Data on distribution of broadleaf weeds in 14 soybean fields were used in simulation experiments to investigate the potential for improving decision making with information about weed patchiness. The feasibility of modeling weed distribution in individual fields was also examined. Overall, the cost of assuming a regular distribution when making POST decisions was found to be low. Errors that occurred most often involved recommending more intensive control than was actually required, although in a few cases less intensive control was recommended. Error in the yield loss estimated for the uncontrolled population did not indicate the potential for a mistake in decision making for a field. Accurately modeling distribution of weeds within fields may be difficult as a result of correlations between distributions of individual species within a field and variation in distributions between fields.