FERTILITY DECLINE IN PRUSSIA, 1875-1910 - A POOLED CROSS-SECTION TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS

Marital fertility level and decline are examined in 407 small areas in Prussia using quinquennial data for the period 1875 to 1910 from an unusually rich and detailed data set, and pooled cross-section time-series methods. Religion, ethnicity, and prevalence of mineworkers are the only statistically significant factors associated with marital fertility level. However, none of these are important predictors of marital fertility decline. Marital fertility decline in nineteenth-century Prussia is better predicted by increased women's labour force participation in non-traditional occupations, the growth of financial institutions, the development of a transport-communications infrastructure, reduction in infant mortality and improvements in education.