DESCRIBING AND FORECASTING THE SARDINE-ANCHOVY COMPLEX IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN USING VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIONS

被引：19

作者：

STERGIOU, KI

机构：

来源：

FISHERIES RESEARCH | 1991年 / 11卷 / 02期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1016/0165-7836(91)90103-M

中图分类号：

S9 [水产、渔业];

学科分类号：

0908 ;

摘要：

A Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) model, including two variables (anchovy and sardine catches) and six lags adequately described and forcasted the anchovy-sardine complex in the eastern Mediterranean (Greece) during 1964-1987. The model explained 93 and 72% of the variability of the anchovy and sardine catches, respectively, and produced accurate and unbiassed fits and forecasts. Annual anchovy and sardine catches were fitted within an absolute percentage error (APE) range of 1.9-26.9% (mean APE = 9.5%) and 0.4-13.2% (mean APE = 4.6%). Forecasts for 1985-1987 had APE values ranging between 4.9 and 20.9 and 4.7 and 19% for anchovy and sardine, respectively. The model predicted persistence, a 3-year periodicity of catches, and a negative relationship between anchovy and sardine catches, all of which are consistent with micro-economic and biological/oceanographic observations on the fisheries of these species in the Mediterranean.

引用

页码：127 / 141

页数：15

共 50 条

[1]

Belveze, Erzini, The influence of hydroclimatic factors on the availability of the sardine (Sardina pilchardus, Walbaum) in the Moroccan Atlantic fishery, FAO Fish. Rep., 291, pp. 285-328, (1983)

[2]

Bocharov, Problems of fishery forecasts in Far Eastern Seas from the point of view of systems analysis, Sov. J. Mar. Biol., 14, pp. 1-8, (1989)

[3]

Boudreault, Dupont, Sylvain, Modeles lineaires de prediction des debarquement de homard aux Iles-de-la-Madeleine (Golfe du Saint-Laurent), Journal of the Fisheries Research Board of Canada, 34, pp. 379-383, (1977)

[4]

Crecco, Savoy, Whitworth, Effects of density-dependent and climatic factors on American shad, Alosa sapidissima, recruitment: a predictive approach, Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci., 43, pp. 457-463, (1986)

[5]

Daan, A review of replacement of depleted stocks by other species and the mechanisms underlying such replacement, Rapp. P.-V. Reun. Cons. Int. Explor. Mer, 177, pp. 405-421, (1980)

[6]

Dement'Eva, A method for correlation of environmental factors and year-class strength of fishes, J. Ichthyol., 27, pp. 55-59, (1987)

[7]

Dickson, Kelly, Colebrook, Wooster, Cushing, North winds and production in the eastern Atlantic, J. Plankton Res., 10, pp. 151-169, (1988)

[8]

Dixon, BMDP Statistical software, (1983)

[9]

Doan, Litterman, Rats user's manual, (1984)

[10]

Durbin, Watson, Testing for serial correlation in least squares regression, Biometrica, 38, pp. 159-177, (1951)

← 1 2 3 4 5 →