LINEAR PREDICTION FILTERS FOR LINEAR AND NONLINEAR MODELED GEOMAGNETIC-ACTIVITY

It is shown that the Faraday loop analogue model of geomagnetic activity exhibits both the directly driven and loading-unloading magnetospheric responses to solar wind input. It is further shown that the directly driven component is a linear response to loading while the loading-unloading response is nonlinear. Linear prediction filters which relate model input to output are discussed. By either allowing or suppressing the loading-unloading model response, filters that relate to nonlinear or linear dynamics, respectively, have been computed. Filters that describe the directly driven response are finite ranged; they asymptote to zero with increasing lag on a time scale that is fixed by the dissipation rate of the model. Filters that describe the nonlinear total response are infinite ranged; they asymptote with increasing lag to large amplitude periodic oscillations. Some implications of these infinite ranged filters are discussed.