SWITCHING CLOSE TO HOME - VOLATILITY OR COHERENCE IN PROTESTANT AFFILIATION PATTERNS

Data derived from the General Social Surveys (GSS, 1973-84 and 1973-90) are analyzed using Goodman's loglinear mobility data techniques to assess assertions of Roof and McKinney (1987) regarding the switching of affiliation among ''families'' (conservative, moderate, or liberal) of Protestant denominations. Their claim that switching has increased in recent years is contradicted by results showing a statistically significant decline in switching incidence over time. The general notion of Protestant volatility is contradicted by a summary comparison with other religious groups in the GSS and is shown to be due to theoretical distortions caused by the use of Protestant subcategories in switching research. From the acceptable fit of a distance model to the data, it is argued that switching behavior within Protestantism demonstrates coherence rather than volatility.