TO COMBINE OR NOT TO COMBINE - ISSUES OF COMBINING FORECASTS

This paper addresses issues such as: Does it always pay to combine individual forecasts of a variable? Should one combine an unbiased forecast with one that is heavily biased? Should one use optimal weights as suggested by Bates and Granger over twenty years ago? A simple model which accounts for the main features of individual forecasts is put forward. Bayesian analysis of the model using noninformative and informative prior probability densities is provided which extends and generalizes results obtained by Winkler (1981) and compared with non-Bayesian methods of combining forecasts relying explicitly on a statistical model for the individual forecasts. It is shown that in some instances it is sensible to use a simple average of individual forecasts instead of using Bates and Granger type weights. Finally, model uncertainty is considered and the issue of combining different models for individual forecasts is addressed.