Contribution of Monsoon Asia to the carbon budget of the biosphere, past and future

The High Resolution Biosphere Model (HRBM), which has been developed by the group of the author, was used to investigate the carbon balance of the vegetation and the soil in the ecosystems of Monsoon Asia in comparison to the rest of the world. The HRBM is a global grid-based (0.5 degree resolution) model with a monthly time step. It includes modules for natural vegetation, land use, vegetation fires, vegetation composition. A historical carbon budget was calculated for the period 1860-1978 and, on a global scale, validated using atmospheric CO2 data. Based on the per-country development of the population and their requirements, different reasonable scenarios were used to investigate the potential impacts of land use and deforestation in the period 1990-2050. The HRBM calculates considerable contributions of Monsoon Asia to the global CO2 emissions due to land use changes in the past. Between 1860 and 1978, about 1/4 of the global releases from land use changes came from South Asian and Southeast Asian biota. The future contributions in the period 1990-2050 depend on the assumed development of the agricultural methods. If the intensity of agriculture and the agricultural productivity will stay the same as in the 1980s, there will be a strong need to increase agricultural areas, and thus deforestation will dominate. If there will be a change over to intensive methods of agricultural production, the presently used areas might be sufficient to provide resources to the growing population.