Modelling bovine tuberculosis in badgers in England: Preliminary results

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) appears to be endemic within the badger population of south-west England. The total number of cattle herds with confirmed tuberculosis has increased from 197 in 1992 to 320 in 1993, and the badger is believed to be responsible for many of these breakdowns. Data on a high density badger population naturally infected with tuberculosis have been collected since the late 1970s. This paper presents some of the results of this epidemiological. study and shows how localised the disease has been over a number of years. We also describe a number of models that have been used to help understand the progression of the disease within the population. These are simple, within-group infection models used primarily to help to understand the disease dynamics. The option to add vaccination, or restructure the model for other species, such as possums is always available. The results suggest that TB would only be sustained for long periods in social groups with about eight or more members, and that disease spread does not correspond to classical epidemiological models.