A MONTE-CARLO METHOD FOR MULTIAREA GENERATION SYSTEM RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT

Considerable attention has been devoted to multi-area generating system reliability assessment in recent years [1-8]. Most of proposed methods are based on a combination of the generation capacity state enumeration technique and the network flow (maximum flow-minimum cut) algorithm. This paper presents a new method for multi-area generation system reliability assessment. It is based on direct sampling of generating unit states, the clustering technique arid the correlative normal distribution sampling technique of the load states. A linear programming model is used to minimize the total load curtailment. Area load uncertainty, correlation between area loads and generating unit derated states have been considered. Incorporation of these factors does not create a significant increase in computing time. Sensitivity indices of both system and each area to area generation and tie line capacities can be calculated. These indices provide important information regarding which tie line or which area generating capacity should be reinforced from the overall system and each area point of view. Calculation results of a four-area system are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.