TRYING OUT FOR THE TEAM - DO EXHIBITIONS MATTER - EVIDENCE FROM THE NATIONAL-FOOTBALL-LEAGUE

被引:4
作者
CRAIG, LA [1 ]
HALL, AR [1 ]
机构
[1] NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138
关键词
LEGIT; RANK-ORDER TOURNAMENT; SEEMINGLY UNRELATED REGRESSION;
D O I
10.2307/2290939
中图分类号
O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];
学科分类号
020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;
摘要
A recent article in Sports illustrated argues that the National Football League (NFL) preseason schedule should be eliminated because the games are meaningless, feature subpar players, and are of no interest to fans. In this article we challenge this view, using statistical techniques to analyze both the outcome of preseason games and their value as a predictor of regular season performance. Our analysis is based on the application of a rank-order tournament model to the NFL labor market. The model explains preseason results in terms of the competition for positions on teams. Two implications are that the outcome of preseason games should reflect the labor market characteristics of the participating teams and that a team's preseason record should be positively related to its regular season record. Both of these hypotheses are consistent with our analysis of NFL data from 1970 through 1991.
引用
收藏
页码:1091 / 1099
页数:9
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