FORMALLY TESTING THE PRESENT VALUE MODEL OF FARMLAND PRICES

This paper applies recent statistical developments in the study of stock market price movements to study the plausibility of the constant expected returns version of the present value model as an explanation of farmland prices. Using Iowa farmland price and rent data over the 1921-86 sample period, formal test results indicate that, although farmland price and rent movements are highly correlated, price movements are not consistent with the implications of this model. There appear to be persistent predictable excess positive and/or negative returns in the Iowa farmland market.