DUTCH BOOKS AND CONDITIONAL-PROBABILITY

被引：7

作者：

BORDER, KC ^{[1
]}

SEGAL, U ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] UNIV TORONTO,TORONTO M5S 1A1,ONTARIO,CANADA

来源：

ECONOMIC JOURNAL | 1994年 / 104卷 / 422期

关键词：

D O I：

10.2307/2234675

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

An oddsmaker who does not update odds in accordance with conditional probability can be subjected to a sure loss. Such a losing situation is called a Dutch book. This is often presented as an argument for setting odds in accordance with conditional probability. We point out that if the strategic aspects of oddsmaking are taken into account (choice of odds is a strategic choice in games against bettors), then it is possible that in the equilibrium of the game, posted odds need not be updated 'correctly.' This calls into question the role of such arguments in the foundations of decision theory.

引用

页码：71 / 75

页数：5

共 9 条

[1]

BORDER KC, 1991, UNPUB DUTCH BOOK ARG

[2]

de Finetti B., 1937, ANN I H POINCARE, V7

[3]

FISHBURN PC, 1989, UNPUB RECONSIDERATIO

[4]

Luce RD, 1988, J RISK UNCERTAINTY, V1, P305