PREDICTABILITY AND PREDICTION

被引：57

作者：

EHRENBERG, ASC

BOUND, JA

机构：

[1] STERN SCH BUSINESS,NEW YORK,NY

[2] LONDON GRAD SCH BUSINESS STUDIES,LONDON,ENGLAND

来源：

JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY | 1993年 / 156卷

关键词：

BETWEEN-GROUP ANALYSIS; CHOICE OF MODEL; CONDITIONS OF OBSERVATION; INDUCTION; LEAST SQUARES; MANY SETS OF DATA; PARSIMONY; PHYSICS; SOCIAL SCIENCE;

D O I：

10.2307/2982727

中图分类号：

O1 [数学]; C [社会科学总论];

学科分类号：

03 ; 0303 ; 0701 ; 070101 ;

摘要：

A result can be regarded as routinely predictable when it has recurred consistently under a known range of different conditions. This depends on the previous analysis of many sets of data, drawn from different populations. There is no such basis of extensive experience when a prediction is derived from the analysis of only a single set of data. Yet that is what is mainly discussed in our statistical texts. The paper discusses the design and analysis of studies aimed at achieving routinely predictable results. It uses two running case history examples.

引用

页码：167 / 206

页数：40

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