JULY TEMPERATURES IN KASHMIR AND LADAKH, INDIA - COMPARISONS OF OBSERVATIONS AND GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL SIMULATIONS

The Himalayan mountain region represents a challenging laboratory to refine general circulation model simulations and to compare them with climate observations at regional and local geographical scales. This paper includes an analysis of July temperatures in the Great Himalaya Range of northern India. Five sources of data are analyzed: (1) coarse-scale model simulations for present climate (1 x CO2 runs), (2) regression model predictions of temperature versus elevation (after Lambert and Chitrakar, 1989), (3) spatially-interpolated observed data for the region (after Legates and Willmott, 1990), (4) individual station records in the region, and (5) local-scale field data taken in summer, 1988. As expected, July temperature simulations from general circulation models tend to generalize temperature/elevation relationships and do not appear to account for landscape surface feedbacks on air temperatures at a regional and local scale. Cautious use of climate model predictions of temperature and moisture for climate change scenario analyses is strongly encouraged. For mountain areas, field verification and weather station analyses for regional and local scales are essential for interpreting results from general circulation models.