A MODEL OF THE EFFECTS OF TILLAGE ON EMERGENCE OF WEED SEEDLINGS

A simple model is developed in which the density of weed seedlings emerging in a field is related to (1) the ability of seedlings to emerge from various depths in the soil, (2) the survival of seeds at different depths, and (3) the depth of seed burial in no tillage, rotary tillage, and plow tillage. Other tillage regimes are considered by analogy. Literature is reviewed to determine biologically reasonable functions describing seedling emergence, seed survival, and distribution of seeds with depth, and parameters of these equations are estimated from data in the literature. Problems related to the mathematical description of these phenomena are discussed, and it is noted that some commonly held beliefs regarding survival of seeds in the soil are mutually incompatible. Although many studies have investigated the persistence of seeds as a function of depth in the soil, few have distinguished death from the production of seedlings. The model indicates that in the first year following input of seeds to the soil, no tillage will have more seedlings than tillage, but in later years no tillage will likely have fewer seedlings unless innate or induced dormancy is high or seed survival near the soil surface is unusually good. If seed return is allowed, no tillage or minimum tillage will have more seedlings perennially. Recovery of good weed control following a year with substantial seed input may be easiest if the soil is plowed deeply to bury the seeds, and then shallow or no tillage is used in subsequent years to avoid returning seeds to the surface. Much of the literature on the effects of tillage on weed density is difficult to interpret because little indication is given of the vertical distribution of seeds in the soil at the beginning of the experiment.